Appalachian State University

Andrew R. Smith

Kulynych/Cline Distinguished Professor of Psychology
Psychological Science Program Director

I study how people make judgments and decisions, especially when desires, expectations, and biases shape the process. My work spans wishful thinking, risk perception, anchoring effects, and the estimation of averages. I'm also committed to open science and replication in psychological research.

Andrew R. Smith headshot

Areas of Interest

01

Wishful Thinking

People tend to believe desired outcomes are more likely to occur. My research examines the consequences of these optimistic biases, including how they shape preparation, information seeking, and prediction, and whether interventions can improve accuracy.

02

Risk Taking

From job applications to investments, people must weigh potential benefits against costs. I study situational and personality factors, including anxiety and social context, that influence willingness to take risks.

03

Estimating Averages

When people judge the average of a group, such as a class's performance or a team's speed, their estimates are systematically biased by group size. I study how and why these "sample size biases" arise.

04

Anchoring Effects

Exposure to numeric values influences subsequent estimates, from jury awards to everyday decisions. My research examines factors that mitigate anchoring effects and the downstream consequences of biased estimates.

05

Replication

I conduct direct and conceptual replications of influential findings in social psychology and JDM. This work contributes to a cumulative, self-correcting science and helps evaluate the robustness of foundational effects.

06

Motivated Reasoning

People's desires and preferences can bias how they process information, evaluate evidence, and form beliefs. I investigate the boundary conditions of these motivated biases across domains ranging from elections to health decisions.

Open Science

The replication crisis has fundamentally changed how I approach research. I preregister studies, share materials and data publicly, and prioritize transparent reporting. These practices aren't just methodological preferences — they reflect a commitment to doing science that is cumulative and trustworthy.

I also integrate open science principles into my teaching and mentorship, preparing the next generation of researchers to prioritize rigor and transparency from the start. Visit my OSF profile to see my publicly available materials and data.

Preregistration

Hypotheses and analysis plans registered before data collection

Open Data & Materials

Datasets, stimuli, and code shared publicly via the Open Science Framework

Replication

Systematic replications of influential effects in social psychology and JDM

Transparent Reporting

Effect sizes, confidence intervals, and rigorous statistical practices

Social Cognition & Motivated Reasoning Lab

The SCaMR Lab investigates how motivation, desire, and context shape the way people make judgments and decisions. Our work spans wishful thinking, risk perception, anchoring, and replication science. Graduate and undergraduate students are central to every stage of the research process — from study design and data collection to analysis and publication.

Undergraduates interested in gaining research experience can enroll in PSY 4001 (Research Assistant). Graduate students in the Psychological Science M.A. program work closely with me on thesis research and collaborative projects.

Selected Works

2026

Smith, A. R., Windschitl, P. D., & Crawley, J.*

Wishful thinking in the 2020 US presidential election: Does perspective taking mitigate the preference–expectation link?

Judgment and Decision Making, 21, e4.

2024

Prowten, S.*, Walker, E.*, London, B.*, Pearce, E.*, Napoli, A.*, Chenevert, B.*, Clevenger, C.*, & Smith, A. R.

Does physiological arousal increase social transmission of information? Two replications of Berger (2011).

Psychological Science, 35(9), 1025–1034.

2024

Vaidis, D. C., Sleegers, W. W. A., Van Leeuwen, F., ... Smith, A. R., ... Priolo, D.

A multilab replication of the induced-compliance paradigm of cognitive dissonance.

Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 7(1).

2023

Stuart, J. O. R., Windschitl, P. D., Bossard, E., Bruchmann, K., Smith, A. R., Rose, J. P., & Suls, J.

Which measures of perceived vulnerability predict protective intentions—and when?

Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 46(6), 912–929.

2023

Park, I., Windschitl, P. D., Miller, J. E., Smith, A. R., Stuart, J. O., & Biangmano, M.

People express more bias in their predictions than in their likelihood judgments.

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 152(1), 45–59.

2022

Windschitl, P. D., Miller, J. E., Park, I., Rule, S., Clary, A., & Smith, A. R.

The desirability bias in predictions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.

Cognition, 229, 105254.

2022

Stuart, J. O., Windschitl, P. D., Miller, J. E., Smith, A. R., Zikmund-Fisher, B. J., & Scherer, L. D.

Attributions for ambiguity in a treatment-decision context can create ambiguity aversion or seeking.

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 35(1), e2249.

2021

Miller, J. E., Park, I., Smith, A. R., & Windschitl, P. D.

Do people prescribe optimism, overoptimism, or neither?

Psychological Science, 32(10), 1605–1616.

2021

Li, S., Miller, J. E., Stuart, J. O. R., Jules, S. J., Scherer, A. M., Smith, A. R., & Windschitl, P. D.

The effects of tool comparisons when estimating the likelihood of task success.

Judgment and Decision Making, 16(1), 165–200.

2021

Park, I., Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., Rule, S., Scherer, A. M., & Stuart, J. O.

Context dependency in risky decision making: Is there a description-experience gap?

PLoS ONE, 16(2), e0245969.

2020

Smith, A. R., Windschitl, P. D., & Rose, J. P.

An integrated approach to biases in referent-specific judgments.

Thinking & Reasoning, 26(4), 581–614.

2020

Dickinson, D. L., Smith, A. R., & McClelland, R.*

An examination of circadian impacts on judgments.

Social Psychology, 51(5), 341–353.

2017

Smith, A. R., Rule, S.*, & Price, P. C.

Sample size bias in retrospective estimates of average duration.

Acta Psychologica, 176, 39–46.

2017

Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., Scherer, A. M., & Suls, J.

Risk it? Direct and collateral impacts of peers' verbal expressions about hazard likelihoods.

Thinking & Reasoning, 23(3), 259–291.

2017

Smith, A. R. & Marshall, L. D.*

Confidently biased: Comparisons with anchors bias estimates and increase confidence.

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30(3), 731–743.

2017

Stuart, J. O., Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., & Scherer, A. M.

Behaving optimistically: How the (un)desirability of an outcome can bias people's preparations for it.

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 30(1), 54–69.

2016

Smith, A. R., Ebert, E. E.*, & Broman-Fulks, J. J.

The relationship between anxiety and risk taking is moderated by ambiguity.

Personality and Individual Differences, 95, 40–44.

2016

Scherer, A. M., Bruchmann, K., Windschitl, P. D., Rose, J. P., Smith, A. R., Koestner, B., Snetselaar, L., & Suls, J.

Sources of bias in peoples' social-comparative estimates of food consumption.

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 22, 173–183.

2015

Smith, A. R. & Windschitl, P. D.

Resisting anchoring effects: The roles of metric and mapping knowledge.

Memory & Cognition, 43(7), 1071–1084.

2014

Price, P. C., Kimura, N. M., Smith, A. R., & Marshall, L. D.*

Sample size bias in judgments of perceptual averages.

Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 40(5), 1321–1331.

2013

Suls, J., Rose, J. P., Windschitl, P. D., & Smith, A. R.

Optimism following a tornado disaster.

Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 39, 691–702.

2013

Smith, A. R., Windschitl, P. D., & Bruchmann, K.

Knowledge matters: Anchoring effects are moderated by knowledge level.

European Journal of Social Psychology, 43, 97–108.

2013

Windschitl, P. D., Scherer, A. M., Smith, A. R., & Rose, J. P.

Why so confident? The influence of outcome desirability on selective exposure and likelihood judgment.

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 120, 73–86.

2013

Scherer, A. M., Windschitl, P. D., & Smith, A. R.

Hope to be right: Biased information seeking following arbitrary and informed predictions.

Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 49, 106–112.

2012

Rose, J. P., Windschitl, P. D., & Smith, A. R.

Debiasing egocentrism and optimism biases in repeated competitions.

Judgment & Decision Making, 7, 761–767.

2012

Scherer, A. M., Windschitl, P. D., O'Rourke, J., & Smith, A. R.

Hoping for more: The influence of outcome desirability on information seeking and predictions about relative quantities.

Cognition, 125, 113–117.

2011

Smith, A. R. & Windschitl, P. D.

Biased calculations: Numeric anchors influence answers to math equations.

Judgment and Decision Making, 6, 139–146.

2010

Smith, A. R. & Price, P. C.

Sample size bias in the estimation of means.

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 17, 499–503.

2010

Windschitl, P. D., Smith, A. R., Rose, J. P., & Krizan, Z.

The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism.

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 111, 33–47.

2008

Windschitl, P. D., Rose, J. P., Stalkfleet, M., & Smith, A. R.

Are people excessive or judicious in their egocentrism? A modeling approach to understanding bias and accuracy in people's optimism.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 95, 253–273.

2006

Price, P. C., Smith, A. R., & Lench, H. C.

Effect of target group size on risk judgments and comparative optimism: The more, the riskier.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 90, 382–398.

* ASU graduate student   ·   For a complete list, see Google Scholar

Courses

Undergraduate
Research Methods in Psychology
Undergraduate
Survey of Social Psychology
Undergraduate
Social Psychology
Undergraduate
Social Psychology Laboratory
Undergraduate · Honors
Advanced Research Methods
Undergraduate · Honors
Judgment and Decision Making
Undergraduate
Contemporary Issues in Psychology
Graduate
Seminar in Judgment and Decision Making
Graduate
Research Practicum
Graduate
Teaching of Psychology
Graduate
Research Seminar